Lei feng's network by the writer Yin Sheng, Internet researcher, former Deputy Editor of Forbes Chinese version of value.
Summary: in the days of early users away from, microblogging is more valuable. In May last year in the microblogging seems to be showing signs of recovery, Yin Sheng reminded the Microblogs are changing, in November, wrote the Twitter is still $ 5 billion of the probability of the event, just 9 months since then, weibo market value has risen by 1.6 times, nearly $ 9 billion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uY-8c65cQPk As a microblog users, I rarely log on once my Twitter account: at best, now I only Twitter one of 282 million monthly active users, while five years earlier if I focus on it, like now I'm on the letter I. But this does not prevent micro-blogging will become a good business, even when Twitter not to be optimistic about, and I believe it.As early as 2013 when Alibaba announced a stake in Twitter, Ali, I wrote an article about the endorsement, Twitter value will reach US $ 60-90 billion after three years, reference to the Twitter and Facebook's valuation, in 2016 I think its value is expected to reach US $ 60-90 billion in the first half.In light of the expected Twitter for the past four quarters, revenues are expected to exceed $ 300 million, and the actual result is much better than expected, up to 540 million dollars, but as a reference one of Twitter's valuation has dropped sharply. Currently Facebook dynamic Price to Sales Ratio of about 16 times, while Twitter is about 5 times, at a Price to Sales Ratio is 12.5 times times Facebook, Twitter's valuation is up to 30-40 times.Twitter as a business, is close to Facebook, while it in the form of products like Twitter–Facebook has maintained a revenue and profit growth, while Twitter is not only declining revenue growth rate and are still at a loss–Twitter is becoming evident in sales and earnings trend growth.In the past quarter, Twitter's revenue grew by 36% to $ 146.9 million, net profit increased from $ 4.2 million in the same period last year to us $ 25.9 million. In the first quarter, revenue growth is somewhat lower, only 24%, but profit also surged–from a loss of $ 3.1 million in the same period last year to a profit of $ 7.1 million. But if the influence of Ali Baba, two of the quarter's revenue growth will probably exceed 50%, much better than the same period last year.According to the 2013 shareholder agreement, Alibaba in the next three years will be micro-blogging to spend $ 380 million in marketing expenses, and the fact of the matter is, 2013-2015 invested $ 49.14 million, US $ 108 million, respectively, and $ 144 million, respectively, per cent of total revenue that year, and 26% and 30%, but the first two quarters of this year, the ratio plummeted to 9.3% and 8.7%, respectively.Now don't know what Ali Twitter investment strategy-the cooperation of the two companies had just expired three years – but it was Ali will be micro-blogging one of the main strategic clients, so you can expect adverse effects of Ali is now closer to the worst-case scenario.Addition a adverse factors of effect also has Digest have almost, that is value-added service income, the items income including has game, and members fee and data open, project, in company just listed Shi, the items business was placed has hopes–2013 and 2014, the items income accounted for all income of proportion are reached has 21%, but then the business experience has delay rose, this year Qian two a quarter, the business contribution of revenue accounted for all revenue of proportion has respectively Xia down to 16.8% and 13.4%.Twitter's revenue model rely more and more on advertising, which is conducive to the establishment of cost and efficiency advantages, both focused on the advertising model and the experience also includes sales network efficiency, and it is also in line with micro-blogging was a strong media properties, media, advertising is a matter of revenue models.Instead, value-added service or not micro-Bo at of, or itself may will hurt its as a independent platform of value, and its concern points also and advertising mode different–based on advertising of commercial mode requirements company in content aspects always in led location, and value-added service pursuit of is existing content and flow of variable now, even is input Yu completely different of specific business, this is may makes company missed those on Qian a mode vital of investment, like short video and live.If will past years as a overall view, micro-Bo does experience has trough, but in past of several quarter, regardless of is from business index also is financial index see, are established has obviously of recovery trend: in on Ali of effect for adjustment Hou displayed, from last year second half of began, micro-Bo of revenue growth began low enterprises stability and rebound, and this year Qian two a quarter is rendering out obviously of heavy back growth track trend.Business, December 2012 forecast year monthly active users daily active users, respectively, 48% and 47.6%, and 45%, show a decreasing trend. The first quarter is a quarter of Twitter users the fastest-growing and coming quarter reflects the user's ability to retain, and in the last two quarters, Twitter's share of Japanese live in months to live are 46% and 44.7%, above 45% and 43.9% in the same period of last year, this is the user active level of evidence.In last year May of micro-Bo seems to appeared has recovery of signs in the, Yin Sheng on reminded has micro-Bo is occurred of changes, in November and wrote has 5 billion dollars of micro-Bo still is big probability event, although then I still cannot determine micro-Bo has appeared of recovery signs can will the company with to determine of new growth track, but even such, I still think micro-Bo market soon will heavy back 5 billion dollars, and into 60-90 billion dollars interval of probability also in rose (if you in then buy enters the Bo of stock And so now have 1.6 times to return).Compared to these external indicators, more profound indicator gives a more powerful, but often overlooked, information, and it is this information made me appear more optimistic than most people: a platform of mainstream value ultimately depends on whether it has value and entry status, and whether it has an alternative.Although micro-letter with its more effective of social and communications capacity of rise attract has those early of micro-Bo user, but intelligent phone of universal and user of sinking, and 90 and 00 Hou of rise, and micro-Bo strong of to alternative of media property, and micro-Bo timely in vertical content, and short video, and live, field of input, are again defined has micro-Bo as mobile times of user value and entrance status–efficient created content, and in not specific of user Zhijian established contact, and found and share content of effective way.Now micro-Bo most core of user, has and I as core user of that times occurred has is big changes, second-tier and the following city of user has accounted for to all user of 70% above, $literal and 90 of proportion over 80% (micro-Bo no to out after the and 00 Hou of proportion, but in also based on interest of network Baidu stick there, after the and 00 Hou has over has 60%), this new of generation inter user usually more stressed self, and micro-Bo provides of rich sex and freedom just caters to has this needs, Now it's more like stick, QQ space, and a mixture of traditional micro-blog.Meanwhile, Twitter's current value and cannot be replaced. China market traditional media of big area Super expected landslide, media concentrated type of supply structure disintegration, personal media big outbreak, this let micro-Bo of value and scarce sex get appeared, and in Twitter main where of United States market, traditional media influence still high, they still is main content supply party, this on has more strong distribution channel of Facebook favourable, even such, in event spread field, Twitter still has than Facebook more strong of power, This precisely because of its role as a decentralized news creation and distribution platform value.So, micro-Bo future of value, on depends on its can keep live this not alternative sex, and on May of new trend made timely response, on like it on short video and live such of new form by do of as–it is not himself to do, but investment has a company to caught this two opportunities, this both get has enough of mechanism flexibility, and avoid has its in products experience aspects of short Board. Its opponents, including micro-credit, QQ, not only stick, as well as emerging content like headlines today, including potential new content portals. Paul Frank iPad Air Case
But for a long time in the future, I don't see anyone who can replace the Twitter this location. App has the potential, but it is essentially a closed network of acquaintances, and depending on the network property is an important foundation, which hampered its possibilities of alternative micro-blog at present value. Video advertising has stockpiled enough growth potential for the company, and its pattern of UGC it than aiqi art, traditional video websites such as YouTube potatoes better cost structure.So, on micro-Bo of valuation also ought to reflected its value status of again established: mutatis mutandis Facebook currently of dynamic city pin rate, give micro-Bo 15-20 times of dynamic city pin rate, this equivalent to 80-110 billion dollars of valuation; another a method is mutatis mutandis day active user of value, currently Twitter each day active user of market about for 90 dollars, and Facebook is over 300 dollars, Taking into account Facebook users has entrenched rather than Twitter, so Twitter more comparable.If you count the potential takeover value, Twitter will still be more than a $ 20 billion company, which could be worth more than $ 140 per user. Therefore, we can try to Twitter every day active users relatively conservative valuation of US $ 90-110, the corresponding valuation of US $ 110-140 billion. Paul Frank iPad Air CaseIn both, I prefer the latter, namely the user value index in order to reflect the potential value of Twitter video ads and earning trends–established in accordance with the current earnings growth trend, it soon will be reduced to 100 times times earnings or less. Twitter yesterday closed up $ 12.48% to $ 41.81, worth close to $ 9 billion, but relatively reasonable valuation of US $ 110-140 billion, still 25-55% of space.Value line (Jia-Zhi-Xian), the value of Internet thinkers, Tencent technology 2015 the most influential media, value is the Internet researcher, former Deputy Editor of Forbes Chinese version Yin Sheng micro letters public. You can also travel to see Yin Sheng history articles such as snowball, or micro-signal jiazhixian_1 and Yin Sheng a one-to-one communication (add note names/industries/companies). Disclaimer: contents are for reference only, not as a basis for investment decisions, I do not micro-blogging stocks.Lei feng's network (search for "Lei feng's network", public interest) Note: please contact the authorized and keep the source and author, no deletion of content.